Quantos usuários uma tecnologia precisa para "decolar"?

Da série perguntsa intrigantes da Inoglobalização....

Mark Andressen colocou algo bem interessante em um post sobre os "Technoratti" aqui, dizendo:

"This is what happened with:

• The PC -- 1+ billion users and growing
• The web browser -- 1+ billion users and growing
• SMS -- 2+ billion users and growing
• Ecommerce -- hundreds of millions of users and growing
• Instant messaging -- hundreds of millions of users and growing
• VOIP -- 100+ million users and growing
• The MP3 player -- at least tens of millions of users and growing
• Internet video -- niche/marginal at best until sudden takeoff a couple years ago with Youtube and now exploding in about a hundred different forms for tens of millions of users and growing fast.
• Social networking! The in crowd first wrote off social networking post-Friendster, then again post-Orkut. Then social networking started to get traction in the mainstream market -- four years later! -- in 2005-2006 with MySpace and now Facebook."

Além disto, ele mesmo cita o comportamento aloprado dos comentaristas e "influenciators", afirmando, categoricamente que:

"But sometimes, the new thing goes on its merry way, ignored and dismissed by the in crowd, and grows, and grows, and grows, and grows, and grows, and grows -- and is ultimately discovered by millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions, or even billions of people all around the world who incorporate it into their daily lives and don't have the foggiest idea that there was ever a group of insiders who dismissed it a few weeks into its pre-adolescence."

Em outras palavras, algumas tecnologias ainda levam alguns anos maturando e sendo "fermentadas" na cultura local.

Pense nisso ao montar uma value cloud star-up.

SENTAPUA! E Vamos à luta, filhos da Pátria!